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Commodity research papers

commodity research papers

Xls (effect on market) stockvaldiv. We discuss shortcomings of the most common filters used in the literature and policy circle, and propose a fairly simple and intuitive alternative - the local level filter. Wei Xiong (2001 Convergence Trading with Wealth Effects: An Amplification Mechanism in Financial Markets, Journal of Financial Economics 62, 247-292). Conghui Hu and Wei Xiong (2013 Are Commodity Futures Prices Barometers of the Global Economy?, Apres le Deluge: Finance and the Common Good after the Crisis, edited. In this paper, we look at ways of adapting to the changed enviornoment, when valung banks, insurance companies and invstment banks. Our model explicitly accounts for the deflation protection enhancement embedded in Japanese inflation-indexed bonds issued since 2013, which pay their original nominal principal when deflation has occurred from issue to maturity. Valuation: Special Situations. Marketability and Value : The Illiquidity discount. In this paper, we look at how to incorporate this risk both into discounted cash flow and relative valuation models. Download paper as pdf file Valuing Declining and Distressed Companies (The 2009 edition) We face two key problems in valuing declining and distressed companies. In this chapters, we look at the three ways in which this growth rate can be estimated - from history, from analyst or management estimates and from fundamentals.

Nber, working Papers - National Bureau of Economic, research

Nber Reporter Summary of My Commodity Research 2014 Symposium on Emerging Financial Markets: China and Beyond 2013 nber Meeting on Economics of Commodity Markets 2013 Symposium on Chinese Financial Markets 2012 nber Meeting on Economics of Commodity Markets 2012 Symposium on Chinese Financial Markets. The value of this enhancement is sizable and time-varying, with substantive impacts on estimates of expected inflation compensation. Spiegel May 2019 abstract, we assess the impact of news concerning the reforms associated with Abenomics using an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. Download paper (pdf) Download Global Crossing valuation distress. NEW, recent professional activities, iMF Lecture "The Institutional Foundation of China's Financial System". The model predicts that a credit supply shock can generate large comovements between the house price and the price-to-rent ratio. In the process, we examine the premium that should be paid for voting shares, the discount to be applied to illiqudid shares and the effect of contingent claims. Leases, Debt and Value. The sizable depreciation of the British pound that immediately followed Brexit works as a quasi-experiment, enabling us to study the transmission of a large common marginal cost shock to inflation as well as the distribution of prices within granular product categories. Valuing financial service firms (2009 version). Dealing with R.

Papers - NYU Stern School of Business

Extrapolating the estimated trends using Census Bureau population forecasts and our own forecasts for educational shares, we project that over the next 10 years the trend LFP rate will decline.1 from its 2018 value.7, and. The latest in economic research 16, andrew Foerster Andreas Hornstein Pierre-Daniel Sarte Mark Watson May 2019 abstract, we find disparate trend variation in TFP and labor growth across major.S. In this paper, we deal with both issues and how to reflect them in valuation. Some of these innovations were designed to give firms more flexibility in designing cash flows on borrowings, allowing them to match up cash flows on financing more closely to cash flows on assets, thus increasing their debt capacity. Financing Innovations Relative Valuation and Real Options. Valuing Distressed Firms. Ing-haw Cheng and Wei Xiong (2014 The Financialization of Commodity Markets, Annual Review of Financial Economics 6, 419-441. Xls (effect on individual stocks) Information Transparency and Value: Can you value what you cant see? In the crisis of 2008, both assumptions came under assault. Inherent in the use of this model are two assumptions - that financial service companies pay out what they can afford to in dividends and that the regulatory constraints that they operate under will keep risk under control. Value at Risk (VaR) (Download paper) To Hedge or Not to Hedge? This site will carry some papers that I have written that you can download in pdf form. Most of these papers are applied papers, relating to estimation issues that we commonly face in corporate finance, portfolio managment and valuation.

Papers - National Bureau of Economic, research

In most valuations, we ignore distress entirely in valuation and make implicit assumptions about the consequences of a firm being unable to meet its financial obligations and these assumptions often are unrealistic. Measuring Returns A Survey Paper on Valuation People have been valuing businesses for as long as businesses have been around. Download paper as pdf file Valuing financial service firms (2009 version) It is difficult to estimate cash flows at financial service companies. Wei Xiong and Jialin Yu (2011 The Chinese Warrants Bubble, American Economic Review 101. Dow nload paper(pdf) divtaxpremium. Thus, in some sectors, changes in TFP and labor growth lead to changes in GDP growth that may be as large as three times these sectors' share in the economy. The state-dependent model fares better in capturing the endogenous selection of price changes at the lower end of the price distribution, however, it misses on the magnitude of the adjustment conditional on selection. Some of the cash is held to cover operating needs (transactions some to cover contingencies (precautionary motive) and some reflects managerial incentives. The final issue is the question of control and whether there should be a premium for control or a discount for the lack. Zhiguo He and Wei Xiong (2012 Dynamic Debt Runs, Review of Financial Studies.

Working Papers, office of Financial

This paper looks at how best to measure the value of control and how this can be useful in answering a variety of valuation questions. Production sectors over the post-wwii period. No matter how strict accounting standards are, firms will continue to use their discretionary power to spin and manipulate the news that they convey to financial markets. There are also options in financing and valuation. Markus Brunnermeier, Michael Sockin, and Wei Xiong (2017 China's Model of Managing the Financial System Online Appendix. . In addition, the slow process of capital accumulation means that structural changes have endogenously persistent effects. These reduced-form shocks, however, fail to generate a highly volatile price-to-rent ratio that comoves with the house price observed in the data (the price-rent puzzle). Estimation Issues in DCF Valuation. Download pdf file R Dconv. The answer to that question affects how much the control premium should be in acquisitions, how much of a premium voting shares should trade at and the discount that should be applied to minority stakes in private companies. Summary on VoxEU ; coverage by FT Gillian Tett, James Hamilton, WSJ Justin Lahart. In this paper, we examine ways in which we can adapt valuation approaches to account for the absence of historical information and the possibility that many of the young firms that we value will not make it through to success.

As a consequence, they remain one of the last bastions for the dividend discount model. The paper also discusses the recent increase in collateral demand, effects of post-crisis regulation, and collateral-related stress scenarios. Download paper (pdf) Download Amazon valuation: 1/1/99 An Updated Amazon valuation: 1/1/2000 Real Option Applications in Corporate Finance and Valuation Are there options embedded in investment decisions? Ting Chen, Laura Liu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou (2017 Real Estate Boom and Misallocation of Capital in China. . An Analysis of a Long-Standing Preference-Based Explanation, Journal of Finance 64, 751-784. These are my very opinionated (and not necessarily correct) answers to the 25 top questions that we face in DCF commodity research papers valuation. First, the central bank can mitigate this problem of a downward bias in inflation expectations by following an average-inflation targeting framework that aims for above-target inflation during periods when policy is unconstrained.

10, oscar Jorda Moritz Schularick Alan. The first relates to the scarcity of information about private firms. Provided the higher compensation for bearing liquidity risk is commensurate with the chance of a major foreign-led sell-off in the Mexican government bond market, this development may not pose a material risk to its financial stability. Zhenyu Gao, Michael Sockin, and Wei Xiong (2017 Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation Online Appendix. . Ke Tang and Wei Xiong (2012 Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities, Financial Analysts Journal 68 (6 54-74. The Equity Risk Premium ( 2008 version, 2009 version, 2010 version, 2011 Edition, 2012 Edition, 2013 Edition, 2014 Edition, 2015 Edition ). Summary of findings and implications on VoxChina. Short-term employment shares some of the characteristics of unemployment and some of the characteristics of employment.

If the leases qualify as operating leases, they affect operating income and do not show up as part of capital. Albert Kyle, Hui Ou-Yang, and Wei Xiong (2006 Prospect Theory and Liquidation Decisions, Journal of Economic Theory 129, 273-288. Two key themes emerge from our analysis. Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong (2018 A Model of Cryptocurrencies NEW. . Starting with the presumption that current accounting standards do not do a good job of assessing their value, we look at whether intangible assets can be reasonably valued, and if so, the best ways of accomplishing this task. Williams May 2019 abstract, this paper uses a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects and implementation of various monetary policy frameworks in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Summary of findings and implications on VoxEU. Your comments are always welcome. How do we reflect the transparency (or the opacity) of a firms financial statements in its value?

commodity research papers